2026-10-27A+++REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
1. 大规模稳健的 AI 主导访谈：弥合定性与定量方法
Conversations at Scale: Robust AI-led Interviews
方向关联机器学习与金融方向：LLM 访谈首次在顶刊作为可复制的测量工具发表；方法论卖点是把定性访谈变成可大规模稳健复制的测量与假设生成工具，可迁移到金融预期调查、投资者访谈与文本生成场景
摘要
Abstract The advent of large language models (LLMs) creates new opportunities to conduct qualitative interviews at scale, with thousands of respondents, thereby bridging qualitative and quantitative methods. We develop a simple, versatile approach for researchers to run AI-led qualitative interviews, including voice interviews. We assess its robustness by drawing comparisons to human experts and with several respondents-based quality metrics. The versatility of the approach is illustrated through four broad classes of applications: eliciting key factors in decision making, political views, subjective mental states, and mental models of the effects of public policies. High performance ratings are obtained in all of these domains. Our applications highlight the potential of AI-led interviews as a tool for measurement, hypothesis generation, and discovering mechanisms.
主要贡献
- 通用可复制的 AI 主导（含语音）访谈方案
- 以人类专家对比与多项受访者侧质量指标双重验证稳健性
- 四类应用（决策关键因素、政治观点、主观心理状态、政策心理模型）均获高评分
DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdag114 →
2026-12A+JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL STABILITY
2. 公共金融基础设施、系统性损失放大与资产价格
Public financial infrastructure, systemic loss amplification, and asset prices
方向关联信息—不确定性—价格主线：系统性风险被写成监管/信息/结算"容量拥堵"的非线性放大机制，直接进入权益要求回报率；风险与模糊性分开定价的新构造；市场使用费（MUF）是可定量评估的政策设计
摘要
Financial crises can generate aggregate losses that substantially exceed the losses associated with the shocks that initiate them. This paper develops a framework in which systemic losses consist of baseline losses and additional amplification losses arising from capacity-constrained public financial infrastructure. Financial activity places demands on supervisory, informational, settlement, and coordination capacity. A canonical capacity-congestion mechanism implies that congestion rises increasingly sharply as financial activity approaches effective infrastructure capacity, generating nonlinear amplification losses. Because these losses occur in adverse states, they increase consumption losses when marginal utility is high and raise required equity returns when equity payoffs are weak in the same states. The paper also studies a stylized funding mechanism—Market Usage Fees (MUFs)—under which publicly listed firms contribute a fraction of operating income to finance public financial infrastructure. MUFs reduce distributable income but expand infrastructure capacity, lower amplification risk, and reduce required returns. When the marginal discount-rate benefit initially exceeds the income cost of the fee, the interaction generates a non-monotonic valuation response and an interior value-maximizing contribution rate.
主要贡献
- 容量拥堵→非线性放大损失的理论框架
- 把放大损失与权益要求回报率直接挂钩（恶劣状态下边际效用高企）
- 设计上市公司缴费的市场使用费机制并导出价值最大化缴费率
DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2026.101604 →
2026-12A+JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL STABILITY
3. 新闻隐含的生产网络与总产出
News-implied production networks and aggregate output
方向关联网络信息优势方向：AI 从金融新闻实时抽取企业生产联系的新构造；网络架构（集中化 vs 密集分散）可预测总产出；产出的企业系统重要性度量可供监管使用，直接对应股吧/新闻文本数据家底
摘要
We develop a new way to measure evolving production networks in real time using financial news. Combining artificial intelligence with a structural propagation framework, we extract firm-level production linkages and study how changes in network architecture relate to future output. We show that economies with centralized production structures experience slow subsequent growth, while dense and dispersed structures are associated with stronger performance. The framework yields firm-level measures of systemic importance that can be used by regulators to monitor macroeconomic risks. Our results show that the architecture of the production network is a measurable and economically meaningful determinant of aggregate dynamics.
主要贡献
- 金融新闻+AI+结构传导框架的新型生产网络实时测度
- 集中化结构抑制后续增长、密集分散结构促进增长
- 企业层面系统重要性测度供监管者监测宏观风险
DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2026.101586 →
2026-12A+JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL STABILITY
4. 可编程利差：金融状况的高频指标？
Programmable spreads: Indicators of financial conditions?
方向关联金融科技与市场动态方向：以 DeFi 智能合约借贷利率减国债利率构造的新测度；样本内外均显著，短期预测最强——样本外是最终裁判；与高频行情数据家底直接对接
摘要
This study examines whether programmable spreads, defined as the difference between decentralized finance smart-contract lending rates and U.S. Treasury-Bill benchmarks, contain forward-looking information about liquidity stress and risk aversion. Using data from major stablecoin lending markets, it finds that programmable spreads are associated with subsequent financial tightening and contain statistically significant forward-looking information regarding future changes in U.S. financial conditions. Wider spreads also forecast higher future excess returns in equity and bond markets, consistent with the predictive relationships implied by time-varying risk premia. These relationships hold both in sample and out of sample and are strongest at short horizons. Moreover, these findings suggest that programmable spreads may serve as high-frequency, complementary market-based indicators of funding stress and information associated with time-varying risk aversion.
主要贡献
- 稳定币借贷利率−国债利率的可编程利差构造
- 样本内外均显著预测美国金融紧缩与股债超额收益
- 短期预测力最强，可作为高频互补的资金压力指标
DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2026.101607 →
2026-10-27A+FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
5. 股市流动性与交易成本的百年史
A Century of Stock Market Liquidity and Trading Costs
方向关联组合决策与市场动态方向：1900 年以来道指价差与 NYSE 佣金的百年新测度；总流动性领先预测收益并压倒股息率等传统指标——样本外与经济价值为裁判的典范
摘要
ABSTRACT I assemble and examine an annual time series of bid–ask spreads on Dow Jones stocks from 1900 to 2000 and average commission rates for trading NYSE stocks since 1925. Spreads are cyclical, especially during periods of market turmoil. The sum of half‐spreads and one‐way commissions, multiplied by annual turnover, estimates the aggregate cost of trading and drives a wedge between gross and net equity returns. This difference explains only a small part of the observed equity premium, though I show that the gross equity premium is perhaps 1% lower today than it was early in the 1900's. Finally, I find that the transaction cost measures (spreads and turnover), which serve as a proxy for liquidity, predict stock returns 1 year or more ahead and dominate traditional measures such as the dividend yield. The evidence suggests aggregate liquidity is a determinant of expected stock market returns.
主要贡献
- 1900–2000 年道指买卖价差与 1925 年以来 NYSE 佣金的长期时间序列
- 毛股权溢价较 1900 年代初下降约 1% 的量化
- 总流动性指标领先一年以上预测股票收益，胜过股息率
DOI: 10.1111/fima.70074 →
2026-10-27A+JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL AND GRAPHICAL STATISTICS
6. 离散观测 Hawkes 过程参数估计的神经网络方法
Neural Networks for Parameter Estimation of the Discretely Observed Hawkes Process
方向关联方法论卖点突出：免似然神经网络估计+分位数快速不确定性量化；Hawkes 过程正是高频交易到达/订单流建模的常用工具，与高频数据家底对位；以朴素插补估计为汇总统计量基础的思路暗合"朴素基学习器+集成"的直觉
摘要
When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based inference in this setting, we propose to use a likelihood-free approach that uses simulated data to train a fully connected neural network (NN) to estimate the parameters of the Hawkes process from a summary statistic of the count data. A naive imputation estimate of the parameters forms the basis of our summary statistic, which is fast to generate and requires minimal expert knowledge to design. The resulting NN estimator is comparable to the best extant approximate likelihood estimators in terms of mean-squared error but requires significantly less computational time. We implement NN quantile estimation for fast uncertainty quantification. The proposed estimation procedure is applied to weekly count data for two infectious diseases, with a time-varying background rate used to capture seasonal fluctuations in infection risk.
主要贡献
- 免似然 NN 估计器，均方误差可比最优近似似然估计而计算显著更快
- NN 分位数估计实现快速不确定性量化
- 离散观测（仅知区间总计数）场景的实用方案
DOI: 10.1080/10618600.2026.2754088 →
2026-11-01A++AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL: ECONOMIC POLICY
7. 雾霾天的 IPO 审批
Polluted IPOs
方向关联中国制度情境显式进入设定（发审委审核制）；信息—价格主线：认知能力冲击改变审批的信息生产；结论可折算为监管设计的政策含义（认知疲劳反而减少政治扭曲）
摘要
Chinese companies must undergo a review by a regulator-appointed committee before proceeding with initial public offerings (IPOs). We find that firms—particularly, politically unconnected ones—are more likely to pass this review on polluted days (i.e., with a high level of PM2.5). The effect appears driven by reduced cognitive capacity among reviewers, reflected in fewer and simpler questions raised during review sessions. Notably, firms approved on polluted days show no significant performance difference from other firms within three years after the IPO. The findings suggest that pollution-induced cognitive fatigue may paradoxically reduce distortions in a politically influenced approval process. (JEL D22, G24, G32, K22, P28, P31, Q52)
主要贡献
- 发审委通过率随 PM2.5 上升、政治关联弱企业效应更强的新事实
- 提问数量与复杂度的认知机制证据
- 污染天获批企业三年业绩无差异——审批扭曲未必损害配置效率
DOI: 10.1257/pol.20240900 →
2026-11-01A++AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL: ECONOMIC POLICY
8. 供应链上的贸易保护
Trade Protection along Supply Chains
方向关联地缘经济碎片化方向（与其 EAP 特刊主题直接对位）：针对中国的临时贸易壁垒沿供应链的赢家—输家传导；摇摆州政治冲击的 IV 设计；结论可折算为就业的经济价值
摘要
We study the effects of trade protection along supply chains. We focus on temporary trade barriers against China, which has been the main target of US trade protection during the last decades. To deal with endogeneity concerns, we use an instrumental variable strategy, exploiting changes in the identity of swing states across presidential terms and heterogeneous exposure to these political shocks across industries. We find that politically motivated trade protection generates winners and losers: It fosters employment growth in protected industries but hampers employment growth in downstream industries. Our estimates imply a negative overall impact on US jobs. (JEL D72, F13, F14, L14, O19, P33)
主要贡献
- 针对中国的临时贸易壁垒沿供应链的就业效应分解
- 摇摆州身份变化的工具变量识别
- 被保护行业就业增、下游行业就业降、对美国就业总体为负
DOI: 10.1257/pol.20240893 →
2026-10-29A+Corporate Governance: an international review
9. 共同所有权与供应链上的发明人流动
Shared Stakes, Shared Brains: Common Ownership and Inventor Mobility Along Supply Chains
方向关联创新与网络信息方向：2012–2023 年中国上市企业供应链配对数据显式进入设定；专利数据家底对位（发明人流动）；共同所有权→协作与信息交流→创新的链条；结论折算为创新绩效的经济价值
摘要
ABSTRACT Research Question/Issue This study investigates the influence of common ownership on inventor mobility along supply chains and examines its role in shaping the interfirm governance conditions for human‐capital reallocation within portfolios. Research Findings/Insights Using Chinese listed supplier–customer pairs from 2012 to 2023, we find that inventors are more likely to move along supply chains when common owners hold larger stakes in both suppliers and customers. Through mechanism tests, we reveal that common owners increase the likelihood of such flows by facilitating collaboration and information exchange. This effect is more evident when common owners are long‐term, institutional, or state‐owned, and when supply chains have a weaker collaborative culture, less efficient management, or a poorer legal environment. Finally, such flows mainly increase incremental innovation and enhance innovation performance of both supply‐chain partners. Theoretical/Academic Implications This study extends research on inventor mobility from competitors to collaborators and identifies common ownership as a governance determinant of supply‐chain human‐capital flows. It also reframes common ownership's labor‐market effects from horizontal anticompetition to vertical human‐capital reallocation and highlights inventor mobility along supply chains as a person‐level channel for complementary knowledge recombination, rather than another collaboration‐style outcome. Practitioner/Policy Implications Our findings suggest that investors can leverage common ownership to enhance portfolio competitiveness by strengthening the governance conditions that support inventor mobility. For policymakers, particularly those in emerging markets, our results demonstrate that common ownership can fill institutional voids and alleviate supply‐chain frictions, suggesting that regulatory frameworks should recognize its benefits in supporting human‐capital reallocation and supply‐chain resilience.
主要贡献
- 共同所有权促进发明人沿供应链流动的新事实（中国上市配对）
- 协作与信息交流的机制证据
- 长期/机构/国有共同所有者的异质性；流动提升双方渐进式创新绩效
DOI: 10.1111/corg.70068 →
2026-10-27A+++JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY
10. 二元关系数据二次指派程序的渐近理论
Asymptotic theory of the quadratic assignment procedure for dyadic data analysis
方向关联方法论卖点：网络/二元关系数据推断的理论缺口；与"网络信息优势"主线的方法对位（贸易网络、供应链网络、银行间网络的关联检验都可用 QAP）；studentized 统计量的精确性保证是复杂度有回报的例子
摘要
Abstract The quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) is a popular tool for analysing dyadic data in medical and social sciences. To test the association between 2 dyadic measurements represented by 2 symmetric matrices, QAP calculates the p-value by permuting the units, or equivalently, by permuting the rows and columns of 1 matrix in the same way. Its extension to the regression setting, known as the multiple regression QAP, has also gained popularity, especially in psychometrics. However, the statistical theory for QAP has not been fully established in the literature. We fill the gap in this paper. We formulate the dyadic models underlying various QAPs. We derive (a) the asymptotic sampling distributions of some canonical test statistics and (b) the corresponding asymptotic permutation distributions induced by QAP under strong and weak null hypotheses. Task (a) relies on applying the theory of U-statistics, and task (b) relies on applying the theory of double-indexed permutation statistics. Our asymptotic theory combines tasks (a) and (b), and suggests that we must use properly studentized statistics in QAP to ensure that it is finite-sample exact under the strong null hypothesis and preserves the asymptotic type I error rate under the weak null hypothesis.
主要贡献
- 各类 QAP 背后的二元关系模型形式化
- 典则检验统计量的渐近抽样分布与强弱原假设下的 QAP 置换分布
- 提出 studentized 统计量保证强原假设下有限样本精确、弱原假设下渐近水平控制
DOI: 10.1093/jrsssb/qkag136 →